When you’re previewing Cape League teams it’s hard to draw conclusions. Take last year, for instance.
I thought Wareham was the league’s most talented team. Then Team USA raided the roster and the Gatemen finished with the worst record in the league.
I thought Chatham had a fantastic pitching staff and just needed a little offense. The A’s had an ERA of 4.03.
I thought Orleans would have a powerful offense. The Cardinals hit .234, ninth in the league.
So, yeah, it’s tough. Or I’m just wrong in everything I say, which is possible. I prefer to think it’s just tough. When you get a league full of all-star teams with players in unfamiliar situations — wooden bats, playing every day — you just never know.
For a team to have success, a lot has to go right. They need to get the players they thought they’d get, or if they don’t, get big contributions from temporary players turned regulars. They need good players to have good summers. Plenty of good players don’t. And, if Harwich is any indication, that they need that extra something, chemistry or desire or whatever it is, to get over the top.
You could apply those conditions to every team. When I previewed the season last year, I tried to tailor them to each team but I felt like I kind of missed the mark, as you can see above. I thought Chatham just needed to hit a little and I thought Orleans just needed to pitch a little. I was way off.
This year, I was thinking about doing a best-case, worst-case scenario for each team, but as I started to do it, everyone’s was the same. So instead of that, I’m going to offer up a general feeling for each team. At the end of the post, a prediction.
West
Bourne Braves
I like them a lot, but they’re treading on the dangerous Wareham ’08 territory with six Team USA invitees. Two years ago, though, the Braves went through some serious roster shuffling but ended up making the playoffs with several temporary players carrying a big load. This year, there’s a lot of offensive depth, which should help the cause. Starters Robert Morey, Seth Maness and Turner Phelps will need to pick up the slack if Drew Pomeranz, Cody Wheeler and Alex Wimmers go with Team USA.
Cotuit Kettleers
Potentially the most talented team in the league, and though they’ve got some USA invitees, they still look strong. The pitching staff has a ton of potential, with Max Russell and Justin Grimm looking like aces who also happen to be free of CWS and USA commitments. I like the offense, too, with Cory Vaughn and Cody Stanley leading the way. There’s also a ton of speed, and I’d be shocked if Rico Noel didn’t lead the league in stolen bases.
Falmouth Commodores
Can I say I have no idea? There are now 41 players listed on their roster. That means at least sixteen of them will not be in a Falmouth uniform, so it’s tough to make predictions. I will say that the pitching staff is going to have an interesting look, with three junior-college players who had great stats last year and two Wichita State freshmen who I like for the best freshman pitcher label. If a couple of drafted players go to Falmouth anyway, the Commodores could be a really veteran team.
Hyannis Mets
I think they’re a little off the pace of the three aforementioned teams — the three who might be the league’s most talented — but the more I look at their roster, the less I’m sure about that. I picked Cody Hawn for MVP and I think Eddie Rohan will have a big year, as well. Jackie Bradley, Jr., Trent Whitehead and Dan Burkhart also had great college seasons, giving the offense the makings of a strong nucleus. It could get a little dicey in the pitching staff. Some guys are going to have to step up.
Wareham Gatemen
Holy role reversal. Last year, the Gatemen were the Team USA-stole-everybody poster boys. Not this year. One player will be at Team USA trials, and he’s a non-roster player. Derek Dietrich was on the initial invite list but he decided he’d rather be in Wareham. His presence should only add to a lineup with veterans and talent. The outfield of Ryan LaMarre, George Springer and Alex Dickerson is second-to-none, and Ryan Pineda has a Cape League track record. The pitching staff has a couple of potential aces in Scott Rembisz, Brandon Workman and Taylor Jungmann.
East
Brewster Whitecaps
Like Bourne, the Whitecaps might have some shuffling to do, with three key players at Team USA trials and a few more in Omaha. The offense doesn’t look as deep as some other teams, particularly if Jarrett Parker, Jedd Gyorko and Yasmani Grandal go with Team USA. Another potential star, Tobias Streich, was a fifth-round pick earlier this week. I do think Mark Canha looks poised for a big summer, but he’ll need some help. The pitching staff needs some starters to step up.
Chatham Anglers
New name and a new look. The Anglers ended up with a bunch of players who played for other Cape League teams last year. They also have quite a few small-school guys, as well as players from some schools that haven’t had a big Chatham presence in the past, namely Oklahoma State. I think offensive production might hinge on some players making a leap, like Holy Cross’ Matt Perry, Vermont’s Matt Duffy and USC freshman Rick Oropesa. Jeff Schaus, Whit Merrifield and Tom Belza should be good Cape League hitters who can help carry the load. The pitching staff will need some rebounds from shaky springs, but Russell Brewer, Jake Thompson, Matt Harvey and Shawn Tolleson have had Cape League success before.
Harwich Mariners
Is a title repeat in the cards? There’s no reason to think it isn’t. The Mariners look plenty of good enough to make a run, with their offense poised to lead the way. In terms of spring production, Harwich players combined for 147, an average of almost ten per player. Bryce Brentz skews those numbers a little, but in general there is a lot of power. If Brentz doesn’t go to Team USA, there’s even more. The pitching staff needs to develop some starters.
Orleans Firebirds
On paper, I think they might be the most talented team in the East. The lineup features several players who had big springs, including Michael Lang, Jaren Matthews, Danny Muno, Michael Olt and Ross Heffley. The pitching staff could take a hit if Deck McGuire goes with Team USA, but I like Jimmy Reyes, Rob Rasmussen and Josh Poytress as potential aces. Orleans has had consistently strong pitching staffs over the years, and I don’t think that’ll change.
Yarmouth-Dennis Red Sox
Two of the top returning hitters in the league, Josh Rutledge and Andy Wilkins, lead the charge for a team that should be able to score runs. I’d also expect Mickey Wiswall to be a key cog, and he’s a prime candidate to win the New England top prospect award. I like the pitching staff a lot even if superstar Anthony Ranaudo goes with Team USA. Chris Sale and Austin Ross are coming off great springs, while two highly-touted freshman — Brett Mooneyham and Michael Palazzone look like breakout candidates.
And for the prediction . . .
This might be even harder than usual. With the new playoff format, six teams will be in, which increases the odds that somebody just gets hot at the right time and rolls to the finals. Apparently, we could also end up with two teams from the same division playing each other for the championship.
But enough hemming and hawing. I’m taking the Wareham Gatemen. You take nine returning players, lose nobody to Team USA and mix in top-shelf talent like Dietrich, Dickerson, LaMarre and Springer and you have the makings of something special. I worry a little about the pitching staff, but I think there are enough good arms there to do the trick. Really, the stability and experience just stands out. The ifs with this team are about performance not arrivals. I think that counts for a lot.
