playoff preview: bourne vs. falmouth

A year ago, Bourne finished with the worst team batting average and worst team ERA in the league. Not surprisingly, the Braves had the worst record, too, closing with just nine wins and 32 losses.

The stats this year didn’t quite take the Braves from worst to first in those categories.

But the Braves went from worst to first in the category that counts.

Bourne made an early-season run in the West and never looked back, cruising to the division title. It’s the second in three years, and it’s part of an up-and-down four years for the Braves. They finished last in 2004, first in 2005, last in 2006 and now first in 2007.

They did it this year with a solid, balanced team, one that was molded perfectly despite the loss of several players before the season began. Bourne used a host of temporary players and two of them — Ben Guez and T.J. Hose — turned into all-stars. In all, the Braves were near the top in both offense and pitching — not the most powerful offensive team nor the most dominant pitching team, but still very good.

The Braves will run into a pitching rotation that is dominant.

The top two in No. 2 Falmouth’s rotation, Aaron Crow and Kyle Gibson, are the league ERA leaders. The third pitcher, Christian Friedrich, is near the top in strikeouts. That’s a powerful 1-2-3 punch, and in a three-game series it could be tough to overcome.

But for all the dominance atop the rotation, the Commodores finished seventh in team ERA and in a way, backed into the playoffs. They lost their last two games and went 4-6 in their last 10, barely holding off a charge from Hyannis.

Still, you can’t underestimate those three pitchers. They give Falmouth its best chance.

Here’s a little breakdown of the series.

SEASON SERIES

Six Meetings
Bourne: 2 wins (15-8, 4-1)
Fal: 4 wins (4-3, 2-1, 7-0, 12-0)

• In two wins, Bourne outscored Falmouth 19-9
• In four wins, Falmouth outscored Bourne 25-4
• Total runs in six games: Falmouth 34, Bourne 23

Games at Bourne
Bourne: 2 wins
Fal: 1 win

• In two wins at Doran Park, Bourne outscored Falmouth 19-9
• In one win at Doran Park, Falmouth outscored Bourne 7-0

Games at Falmouth
Bourne: 0 wins
Fal: 3 wins

• In three wins at Guv Fuller Field, Falmouth outscored Bourne 23-3

Last Meeting
Bourne beat Falmouth 4-1 at Doran Park on Aug. 6. Steven Hensley allowed a run in six innings for Bourne.

Conclusions
Home field didn’t necessarily mean anything, but the numbers suggest a correlation. Bourne won twice at home. Falmouth won three times at home. Falmouth won once on the road. Also, Falmouth’s victories over Bourne were big ones.

STACKING UP THE STATS: OFEENSE

As of Wednesday, August 8, with the regular season completed. Ranks in parentheses.

The teams are pretty even in most of these categories. Nobody has a clear advantage. These are both solid offensive teams.

STACKING UP THE STATS: PITCHING

As of Wednesday, August 8. Ranks for ERA and strikeouts in parentheses. I don’t have the ranks for WHIP and Opp. Avg.

Again, I don’t have the ranks, but I think Falmouths’ Opp. Avg. has to be near the top. I think one of the problems for the Commodores is walks, because their pitchers are some of the most unhittable around. If they don’t put people on, look out.

The strikeouts also stand out. Four guys have at least 40 K’s.

BOURNE TEAM CAPSULE

Offensive Leaders:
Average: Kevin Hoef – .317
Home Runs: Josh Satin – 4
RBI: Brian Pruitt – 27

Pitching Leaders:
ERA: D.J. Mitchell – 1.47
Wins: Steven Hensely, T.J. Hose, Rick Zagone – 4
Strikeouts: D.J. Mitchell – 58

Probable Starters (I’m guessing):
C – Brett Basham – .309
1B – Josh Satin – .255
2B – Bill Perry – .222
3B – Kevin Hoef – .317
SS – Addison Maruszak – .278
OF – Brian Pruitt – .241
OF – Ben Guez – .282
OF – Josh Workman – .267
*DH – Adam Zornes – .242
* hard to say on the DH spot

Hoef has hit well all summer at the top of the lineup and is an on-base machine. Guez, Pruitt and Satin give the Braves a solid heart of the lineup.

Top Pitchers:
SP – D.J. Mitchell – 1-2, 1.47
SP – T. J. Hose – 4-3, 2.58
SP – Rick Zagone – 4-1, 2.09
SP/RP – Steven Hensely – 4-2, 3.89
SP/RP – Joe Kent – 2-1, 2.91
RP – Jeff Richard – 2-1, 2.86
RP – Matt Gorgen – 2-1, 2.25
*CL – Jordan Flasher – 1.35, 9 SV

I’m not sure that Flasher is here. It was reported that he was leaving early and he last pitched on Aug. 3. If he’s not in the closer’s spot, that pen doesn’t look as good. As for the starters, Mitchell and Zagone have been two of the best in the league of late.

FALMOUTH TEAM CAPSULE

Offensive Leaders:
Average: Conor Gillaspie – .345
Home Runs: Conor Gillaspie – 7
RBI: Jeremy Farrell – 23

Pitching Leaders:
ERA: Aaron Crow – .67
Wins: Christian Friedrich – 4
Strikeouts: Christian Friedrich – 52

Probable Starters (I’m guessing):
C – Kevin Dubler – .219
1B – Jeremy Farrell – .191
2B – David Adams – .302
3B – Conor Gillaspie – .345
SS – Joey Wong – .252
OF – Matt Hague – .299
OF – Aja Barto – .277
OF – Chris Hopkins – .265
DH – Phil Carey – .225

There are some guys who have struggled in this lineup, but some great hitters too, namely Gillaspie, Adams and Hague. If those three get hot in the playoffs, Falmouth will be in good shape.

Top Pitchers:
SP – Aaron Crow – 3-1, .67
SP – Kyle Gibson – 2-0, 1.17
SP – Christian Friedrich – 4-1, 2.68
SP – Shooter Hunt – 2-2, 4.71
RP – Brett Graffy – 0-2, .87
RP – Kyle Weiland – 1-2, 2.10
CL – Luke Burnett – 4.18, 6 SV

Those top three starters are as good as it gets, but in the regular season, Crow and Gibson rarely went deep into the games, which is why they don’t have that many decisions — the bullpen wasn’t great once they left. If they go deeper in the playoffs, Falmouth may be in business. In the bullpen, Burnett’s ERA is high but he has 41 K in 23.2 IP.

WHAT I THINK

Everybody knows Falmouth’s pitching is spectacular, and I think it will be for this series. But don’t sleep on Bourne. Hose has been great all year, while Mitchell and Zagone finished strong and established themselves as two of the top pitchers in the league.

Offensively, I give Falmouth the edge because of their top hitters — Gillaspie, Adams and Hague.

But I think Bourne wins this series. If I were just looking at stats, I’d say Falmouth, but I don’t like the way the Commodores finished the season. They had their destiny in their own hands and they let it slip away. It just happened to work out for them.

So I’ll take Bourne in a sweep, provided Mitchell and Zagone pitch games one and two.

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